Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.2478/crdj-2021-0011
THE FIRST YEAR OF COVID-19 IN CROATIA - A MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Tibor Rodiger
; Međimursko veleučilište u Čakovcu, Čakovec, Hrvatska
Edgar Glavaš
; Županijska bolnica Čakovec, Čakovec, Hrvatska
Ivan Kovač
; Geotehnički fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
Abstract
The new coronavirus has spread around the world at an unprecedented speed.
Understanding patterns of disease spread is an important contribution to controlling
any epidemic, and today's mathematical methods offer a plethora of proven models
to choose from. We provide a brief overview of epidemiological concepts, papers
pertaining to mathematical modelling, and present a robust, simple mathematical
model to model incidence of COVID-19 cases in Croatia during the first year of the
disease. For our models, we chose logistic, Gumbel and Richards functions, with
parameters generated using the Levenberg-Marquardt iterative method of nonlinear
regression. In conclusion, all three models provided adequate estimation of incidence
curve and final number of infected during the chosen time period, with relatively
minor differences depending on chosen parameters of significance. The model using
the logistic function proved to be the most applicable to available data. While no
model can give the answers to ending the pandemic, this approach can provide a
simple prognostic tool to evaluate interventions and estimate disease spread.
Keywords
COVID-19; mathematical modelling; Croatia
Hrčak ID:
264474
URI
Publication date:
14.10.2021.
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