Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.20901/pm.60.1.01
Social Democracy in Croatia: Ideological Self-Identification and Voter Preferences
Višeslav Raos
orcid.org/0000-0003-2651-1813
; Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Zagreb
Pero Maldini
orcid.org/0000-0001-8036-619X
; University of Dubrovnik
Abstract
The article focuses on social democracy in Croatia and on electoral demand in the context of the general crisis and declining political support for socialdemocracy. The paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of the state of social democracy in Croatia, by examining the relationship between voter ideological self-identification and party preferences regarding social democracy and voting for the SDP. The analysis uses data obtained through field surveys from 1999 to 2020, to identify factors that influence social democratic voters to vote for the party that represents this political ideology – the SDP. The paper tests a generalized linear mixed model in which survey years are treated as random effects. Self-identification on the left-right scale, as well as the attitude on abortion are found to be significant factors explaining why some social democrats vote for the SDP and others do not, with SDP voters leaning towards more left-wing positions and being more likely to support a woman’s free choice on abortion when compared to other social democratic voters. The random effect of survey years has shown low variability, but the amplification of the impact of the fixed effects is evident for 2003 and 2012, where we can see fragmentation and consolidation, respectively, of social democratic voter support for SDP. The model points to the importance of ideological self-identification for voter orientation even among voters from the same ideological camp.
Keywords
Social Democracy; Voter Behavior; Political Ideology; Left-Right Scale; Croatia
Hrčak ID:
300931
URI
Publication date:
27.4.2023.
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