Original scientific paper
Gaussian limit theorem for posterior distribution in the problem of conflicting expert opinions
Ksenia Kasianova
; Faculty of Economic Sciences, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Mark Kelbert
Abstract
Suppose we have $n$ experts who have their prior opinion about the unknown probability $q$ in the experiment with a binary outcome. It is known that experts' opinions are in conflict with each other. To model "conflicting" experts' opinions a prior distribution based on Selberg's integral is constructed. We prove a theorem regarding the limiting properties of the posterior distribution. Also, differential entropy and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of such posterior are studied.
Keywords
Differential entropy; Gaussian limiting theorem; Kullback-Leibler divergence; Selberg's integral; Multivariate Selberg Beta distribution; Expert elicitation
Hrčak ID:
308961
URI
Publication date:
22.10.2023.
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