The Population of Croatia: Factors of Downward Trends

Abstract

The wars affecting Croatian lands from the 15th to the beginning of the 18th century
have stopped demographic and economic development. The drastic population
decline has impoverished Croatia significantly. Areas that suffered the greatest demographic
and economic damage have remained economically underdeveloped,
have maintained a sparse population density and long depopulation tendencies to
the present date. These areas were not always poor, undeveloped and sparsely populated.
Furthermore, a major factor affecting population development in Croatia is
emigration which took the form of several distinctive waves of emigration beginning
at the close of the 19th century up until the present day. The second part of the 20th
century witnessed the centralised development model which led to the large–scale
abandonment of rural settlements resulting in migration towards the few large cities
in Croatia, but also abroad. Thus, the model of accelerated industrialisation suffered
a collapse in just over a decade, at least from the demographic perspective. The
1991 census has demonstrated a natural population decrease, a considerable rate
of emigration and a pronounced deterioration of the age structure of the population.
Population projections for the year 2051 show a ve ry strong population decline.
Anticipated demographic changes bring with them even more serious social and economic
problems. There will be a compelling decline in the working–age population
and so, despite other favourable conditions, the demographic structures will have a
very negative effect on the GDP growth rate.