Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.20901/an.17.01
The Cleavage Structure and parliamentary elections in Croatia in 2020 in times of pandemic
Višeslav Raos
orcid.org/0000-0003-2651-1813
; Fakultet političkih znanosti, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Zagreb, Hrvatska
Sažetak
The article employs an electoral field survey to examine the social cleavages structure in Croatia in the context of the 2020 parliamentary election. Based on a multinomial logistic regression, the article assesses previous findings about a value cleavage rooted in religion, and an identity cleavage founded on views of the past, which combined make up the cultural dimension of party competition. The article also tests for a possible emergence of a new social cleavage, entrenched in voter opinions on economic issues, as well as cleavages pertaining to the issues of sovereignism and demands for more democratic participation. This study introduces new predictive scales which were not previous used in similar studies of Croatian elections. The evaluation of the proposed regression model has shown that religiosity and views of the past are still dominant predictors of voter behavior in Croatia. In addition, significant age differences were detected, whereby younger voters have a higher probability of supporting the Homeland Movement or abstaining, while older voters have greater chances of choosing the center-left coalition. The results also show that higher values on the populism scale lead to lower probability of voting for HDZ, the main center-right party. In conclusion, the article confirms the stability of the value and identity cleavages, as well as the significance of religion and the past, while not detecting the existence of an economic cleavage.
Ključne riječi
Croatia; parliamentary elections; social cleavages; voter behavior; politicalparties
Hrčak ID:
247036
URI
Datum izdavanja:
2.12.2020.
Posjeta: 2.573 *