Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1629325
Modelling European sovereign default probabilities with copulas
Beata Szetela
; Department of Quantitative Methods, IgnacyŁukasiewicz Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland
Grzegorz Mentel
; Department of Quantitative Methods, IgnacyŁukasiewicz Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland
Jacek Brożyna
; Department of Quantitative Methods, IgnacyŁukasiewicz Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland
Abstract
The goal of this article is to investigate a dependence among sovereign countries’risk of default. The analysis was based on data for 42 European countries during the period 1994–2013. Three models were used to calculate default probabilities: Li’s based on transition matrix and prudent unconditional and conditional on previous defaults estimation technique for low default portfolios. The relationship was analysed through the use of different types of copulas. The analysis has shown no regularity in a selection of the optimal copula. The results differ based on the model and rating grade combination used.
Keywords
copula; default probability; risk; distribution
Hrčak ID:
228844
URI
Publication date:
22.1.2019.
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