Algerian northwestern seismic hazard evaluation based on the Markov model

Authors

  • Badreddine Dahmoune Laboratoire Géo-ressources, Environnement et Risques Naturels, Université d'Oran 2 Mohamed Ben Ahmed, Algérie
  • Hamidi Mansour

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17794/rgn.2019.1.10

Keywords:

Seismic hazards, Markov chain, Poisson model, earthquake, North Algeria

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to develop a markovienne model for the evaluation of seismic hazard in the north-western part of Algeria. A region that accommodates from moderate to strong seismic activity (ML ≥ 2.5). This work is an attempt to conceive a stochastic model of the earthquake occurrences in order to assess the seismic hazard based on the use of a discrete time Markov chain with a finite state model. The presented model is applied on a complete data sample compris- ing most of the earthquakes that occurred in the Algerian northwestern area located between latitudes (34°N, 37°N) and longitudes (2°W, 3°E) since 1928 up to now (2018). The Markov chain is built over a homogeneous and completed cata- logue, then the transition probability matrix of the chain is used to simulate the occurrences of the earthquakes in the coming decades. The results are compared to a classic Poisson model.

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Published

2018-10-31

How to Cite

Dahmoune, B., & Mansour, H. (2018). Algerian northwestern seismic hazard evaluation based on the Markov model. Rudarsko-geološko-Naftni Zbornik, 34(1). https://doi.org/10.17794/rgn.2019.1.10

Issue

Vol. 34 No. 1 (2019): No. 44

Section

Geology

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