Comparison of tourism development scenarios of Povlja on the island of Brač in 2009 and 2019

Abstract

Social and spatial transformations in Croatia are occurring in the cities and villages, both on the mainland and the islands. They are governed by the interests of various social actors, while the interventions cause changes in both the social structure and the physical spaces. The islands are particularly challenging as the negative demographic trends of depopulation and population loss create additional difficulties for initiating future development and making positive changes. This is especially true for small islands and small settlements, such as Povlja on the island of Brač. This research presents a case study as a longitudinal comparative analysis of this place and its changes as recorded in the studies conducted in 2009 and 2019. The study aims to compare whether the potential tourism development scenarios of Povlja in 2009 (mass tourism, sustainable tourism, and stagnation) have changed during this period, especially with regards to the social and economic situation. The method of semi-structured interviews with permanent and temporary (seasonal) residents of Povlja was used to gain insight into their views on the current and potential tourism development, as well as to compare the results between the 2009 and 2019 studies. The 2019 research shows that the place hasn't made any progress in the tourist or economic sense, and that among all possible scenarios, the most dominant is stagnation, which eventually leads to decline.