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Original scientific paper

A review of the Granger-causality fallacy

Mariusz Maziarz

Fulltext: english, pdf (620 KB) pages 86-105 downloads: 1.891* cite
APA 6th Edition
Maziarz, M. (2015). A review of the Granger-causality fallacy. The Journal of Philosophical Economics, VIII. (2), 86-105. Retrieved from https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919
MLA 8th Edition
Maziarz, Mariusz. "A review of the Granger-causality fallacy." The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol. VIII., no. 2, 2015, pp. 86-105. https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919. Accessed 22 Sep. 2021.
Chicago 17th Edition
Maziarz, Mariusz. "A review of the Granger-causality fallacy." The Journal of Philosophical Economics VIII., no. 2 (2015): 86-105. https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919
Harvard
Maziarz, M. (2015). 'A review of the Granger-causality fallacy', The Journal of Philosophical Economics, VIII.(2), pp. 86-105. Available at: https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919 (Accessed 22 September 2021)
Vancouver
Maziarz M. A review of the Granger-causality fallacy. The Journal of Philosophical Economics [Internet]. 2015 [cited 2021 September 22];VIII.(2):86-105. Available from: https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919
IEEE
M. Maziarz, "A review of the Granger-causality fallacy", The Journal of Philosophical Economics, vol.VIII., no. 2, pp. 86-105, 2015. [Online]. Available: https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919. [Accessed: 22 September 2021]

Abstracts
Methods used to infer causal relations from data rather than knowledge of mechanisms are most helpful and exploited only if the theoretical background is insufficient or experimentation impossible. The review of literature shows that when an investigator has no prior knowledge of the researched phenomenon, no result of the Granger-causality test has any epistemic utility due to different possible interpretations. (1) Rejecting the null in one of the tests can be interpreted as either a true causal relation, opposite direction of the true causation, instant causality, time series cointegration, not frequent enough sampling, etc. (2) Bi-directional Granger causality can be read either as instant causality or common cause fallacy. (3) Non-rejection of both nulls possibly means either indirect or nonlinear causality, or no causal relation.

Keywords
Granger-causality; epistemology of causality; causality testing

Hrčak ID: 155919

URI
https://hrcak.srce.hr/155919

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