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Forecasting Fiscal Revenues in a Transition Country: The Case of Croatia

Valerija Botrić ; Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia
Maruška Vizek ; Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Croatia

Puni tekst: engleski pdf 125 Kb

str. 23-36

preuzimanja: 637



In this paper we asses the ability of alternative time series models to produce accurate
fi scal revenue forecasts in a transition country and compare them to offi cial forecast. We
take on a disaggregated approach and estimate separate models for seven revenue sources.
Alternative time series models – trend model, random walk, ARIMA, regression and error
correction models – are specifi ed using quarterly data. One - and two - year ahead forecasts
are calculated and compared against actual values and offi cial forecasts. Results suggest
that despite impediments, econometric methods produce forecasts that are in general more
accurate than offi cial forecasts prepared using expert judgment.

Ključne riječi

forecasting, fiscal revenues, time series, transition

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