Izvorni znanstveni članak
ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE
Václava Pánková
; Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic
Eva Cihelková
; Faculty of International Relations, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic
Roman Hušek
; Faculty of Informatics and Statistics, University of Economics, Prague, Czech Republic
Sažetak
The study on volatility and asymmetry of the exchange rate is applied to the Euro/USD relation. Starting in U.S.A., the financial and economic crisis influenced European Union with a certain delay. On the other
hand, this years´ problems in Eurozone are paralleled by rising American economy. That is why we can expect both currencies to develop in different ways. In general, the depreciation deviation of exchange rate can lead to a higher volatility than the appreciation deviation, what implicates asymmetric effects. The uncertainty of exchange rate has a tendency to be inconstant in the time-varying cases, so it has a feature of conditional heteroscedasticity. That is why the models from the ARCH family are employed to study whether the asymmetry is present in the data in question; source: ECB. The Engle – Ng tests for asymmetry in volatility are used to determine whether an asymmetric model is required as adequate. A forecast will be given including an ex post comparison as well as an ex ante prognosis. Financial support from the GA CR project 402/09/0273 and the Research Plan MSM 6138439909 is appreciated.
Ključne riječi
Asymmetric volatility; EGARCH model; News impact curve – NIC
Hrčak ID:
94971
URI
Datum izdavanja:
22.12.2010.
Posjeta: 1.799 *