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Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Real Output Fluctuations in Croatia

Nataša Erjavec ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Cota Boris ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Jakšić Saša ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Sažetak

The paper investigates the sources of real output variability in Croatia by assessing the
impact of macroeconomic structural shocks on fl uctuations in real output. The analysis
is based on a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) where structural shocks (demand,
supply and nominal) are identifi ed using Blanchard-Quah long run restriction technique.
The fi ndings of the empirical analysis point out the dominant role of supply shocks
in explaining real output fl uctuations. In the same time the results reveal negligible effects
of nominal and demand shocks on the variability of real output. To get a better insight
in the dynamics of real output in the aftermath of the structural shocks we also analyse
the impulse response functions. The results show that a positive supply shock leads to a
permanent increase in real output. A nominal shock decreases the real output marginally
although the effect is only temporary and fades out quickly. Surprisingly, the effect of a
demand shock is insignifi cant both in the short run and in the long run.

Ključne riječi

real output; structural vector autoregression; variance decomposition; impulse response function; macroeconomic shocks

Hrčak ID:

98285

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/98285

Datum izdavanja:

1.12.2012.

Posjeta: 1.330 *