Prethodno priopćenje
https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v25i6.1423
Identification of Black Spots Based on Reliability Approach
Ahmadreza Ghaffari
Ali Tavakoli Kashani
Sayedbahman Moghimidarzi
Sažetak
Identifying crash “black-spots”, “hot-spots” or “high-risk” locations is one of the most important and prevalent concerns in traffic safety and various methods have been devised and presented for solving this issue until now. In this paper, a new method based on the reliability analysis is presented to identify black-spots. Reliability analysis has an ordered framework to consider the probabilistic nature of engineering problems, so crashes with their probabilistic na -ture can be applied. In this study, the application of this new method was compared with the commonly implemented Frequency and Empirical Bayesian methods using simulated data. The results indicated that the traditional methods can lead to an inconsistent prediction due to their inconsider -ation of the variance of the number of crashes in each site and their dependence on the mean of the data.
Ključne riječi
Black-spots identification; Reliability analysis; Empirical Bayesian method
Hrčak ID:
114442
URI
Datum izdavanja:
16.12.2013.
Posjeta: 353 *