Izvorni znanstveni članak
Future Population Trends in Croatia: Projection 2001–2031
Ivo NEJAŠMIĆ
Roko MIŠETIĆ
Sažetak
The paper presents future population trends in Croatia, i.e.
the projection 2001-2031. It also warns of future population
trends according to gender and age, and changes in some
"functional age-gender groups". The projection has been
calculated by means of the analytical method or the so-
-called components method; a simpler variant was used, the
so-called survival method. It was created for what is called a
closed population, but in a separate part of the paper
external migration is discussed as a possible modifier of the
projection. The authors have based their projection on
knowledge concerning past dynamic and structural
characteristics of the population of Croatia and on the
supposition of a population decline towards a low variant of
natality (fertility). In Croatia in 2031 there will be 3 680 750
inhabitants, 756 710 or 17.1% less than in 2001! The trend
will not be linear, meaning that depopulation will eventually
become stronger. Even less satisfactory is the fact that a
further deterioration will occur with regard to the population's
age structure. The number of young people (0-14) will be
halved, falling from 23.7% (2001) to 17.4% (2031), while
the number of elderly people (65 plus) will increase, from
15.7% to 22.6%. The young and fertile female contingent
(20-29 years of age) will drop by more than a third. The
average age will be 44.5. In analysing the possible influence
of emigration, the authors point out that it will not have any
major impact on demographic trends. It is concluded that in
the following thirty years demographic extinction will be the
main feature of Croatia's population. Apart from the
demographic consequences, numerous socio-economical
and other changes indicated by this projection will take
place.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
16236
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.10.2004.
Posjeta: 4.353 *