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Prethodno priopćenje

https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.40.4.2

The impact of population aging on public finance in the European Union

Mateo Žokalj ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia


Puni tekst: engleski pdf 601 Kb

str. 383-412

preuzimanja: 557

citiraj


Sažetak

Population aging is a process that shapes the economic environment in most of the developed economies. Thus, understanding the dynamics between public finance and the demographic variables enables policy-makers to adapt and to ameliorate their medium-term budgetary frameworks. The aim of this paper is to examine the fiscal implications of the demographic shift using panel data on 25 EU countries in the period from 1995 until 2014. In order to qualify the findings of previous literature, this paper considers the demographic variables as endogenous and applies the system GMM estimator to obtain the elasticity of several public finance categories with respect to population aging. The results indicate significant and positive impacts of the elderly share on expenditure for pensions and social protection. The higher positive impact on overall public expenditure compared with total government revenue confirms the negative effect of population aging on budget balance. An increase in the young population has a significant impact only on health expenditure.

Ključne riječi

population aging, demographic transition, public finance, system GMM

Hrčak ID:

171056

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/171056

Posjeta: 1.219 *