Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.7906/15.1.2
Evaluating Forecasting Models for Unemployment Rates by Gender in Selected European Countries
Ksenija Dumičić
orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-9455
; University of Zagreb – Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia
Berislav Žmuk
orcid.org/0000-0003-3487-1376
; University of Zagreb – Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia
Anita Čeh Časni
orcid.org/0000-0002-2742-8619
; University of Zagreb – Faculty of Economics and Business, Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
The unemployment can be considered as one of the main economic problems. The aim of this article is to examine the differences in male and female unemployment rates in selected European countries and to predict their future trends by using different statistical forecasting models. Furthermore, the impact of adding a new data point on the selection of the most appropriate statistical forecasting model and on the overall forecasting errors values is also evaluated. Male and female unemployment rates are observed for twelve European countries in the period from 1991 to 2014. Four statistical forecasting models have been selected and applied and the most appropriate model is considered to be the one with the lowest overall forecasting errors values. The analysis has shown that in the period from 1991 to 2014 the decreasing trend of unemployment rates in the short-run is forecasted for more Eastern Balkan than the EU-28 countries. An additional data point for male and female unemployment rates in 2014 led to somewhat smaller forecasting errors in more than half of the observed countries. However, the additional data point does not necessarily improve forecasting performances of the used statistical forecasting models.
Ključne riječi
Balkan countries; forecasting error criteria; unemployment rates by gender; statistical forecasting methods; unemployment
Hrčak ID:
176223
URI
Datum izdavanja:
2.3.2017.
Posjeta: 1.583 *