Izvorni znanstveni članak

https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.1.8

Demographic change and income tax revenue in Germany: a microsimulation approach

Martin Beznoska orcid.org/0000-0002-9966-221X ; Public Finance Research Unit, Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW), Köln, Germany
Tobias Hentze ; Public Finance Research Unit, Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW), Köln, Germany

Sažetak

As a result of high net migration, both Germany’s overall population and its workforce potential are currently growing. However, within a few years this demographic trend will be reversed, leading to a decline in population as a whole and especially in the number of those gainfully employed. In this paper, we use a population projection to apply a static ageing approach to German micro data. Then, we simulate income tax revenue with a microsimulation model for the future population. In 20 years’ time the annual price-adjusted income tax loss is estimated to be equal to € 18 billion or almost 7 per cent. This fall in income tax revenue resulting from a shrinking and ageing society will place a huge strain on public finances in Germany, an effect further enhanced by the shift of the tax burden from pension contributions to pension benefits.

Ključne riječi

public finance; tax revenue; demographic change; microsimulation

Hrčak ID:

178760

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/178760

Datum izdavanja:

15.3.2017.

Posjeta: 1.759 *