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https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.4.3

Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

Petar Sorić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-6773-264X ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Ivana Lolić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0003-3112-7699 ; University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics and Business Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia


Puni tekst: engleski pdf 1.401 Kb

str. 443-477

preuzimanja: 622

citiraj


Sažetak

The aim of this paper is to quantify institutional (political and fiscal) and non-institutional uncertainty (economic policy uncertainty, Economists’ recession index, natural disasters-related uncertainty, and several disagreement measures). The stated indicators are based on articles from highly popular Croatian news portals, the repository of law amendments (Narodne novine), and Business and Consumer Surveys. We also introduce a composite uncertainty indicator, obtained by the principal components method. The analysis of a structural VAR model of the Croatian economy (both with fixed and time-varying parameters) has showed that a vast part of the analysed indicators are significant predictors of economic activity. It is demonstrated that their impact on industrial production is the strongest in the onset of a crisis. On the other hand, the influence of fiscal uncertainty exhibits just the opposite tendencies. It strengthens with the intensification of economic activity, which partially exculpates the possible utilization of fiscal expansion as a counter-crisis tool.

Ključne riječi

economic uncertainty; Economic Policy Uncertainty Index; VAR model with time-varying parameters

Hrčak ID:

190404

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/190404

Datum izdavanja:

12.12.2017.

Posjeta: 1.750 *