Izvorni znanstveni članak
Testing the Applicability of Perry's Model of "Probable Voters" for Predicting the Election Results for the Zagreb City Assembly in 2001
Vesna LAMZA POSAVEC
Goran MILAS
Sažetak
In the results of the validation analysis presented in the article
the applicability of Perry's model of "probable voters" in
Croatian electoral circumstances has been tested, as well as its
possible influence on the predictive validity of pre-electoral
research of public opinion in Croatia. Results of the
comparative field research and telephone opinion polls carried
out on occasion of the 2001 Zagreb City assembly elections
were used in the analysis. In order to define the relative
significance of a specific variable from Perry's model, as a
possible predictor of electoral participation, the first level of
analysis established a factor-structure and the reliability of
included variables for determining the probability of electoral
turn-out. On the second level the authors tried to establish to
what extent a certain variable or group of variables, selected as
significant in the previous analysis, could influence the validity
of research on voting intentions at elections. Based on the latter
it is concluded that in Croatian circumstances the application of
certain elements of Perry's model has a more or less satisfactory
but still limited impact on the validity of pre-electoral research
and that, for Croatian purposes, it should be revised by
introducing some additional variables of electoral behaviour,
first and foremost those that are more situationally connected to
Croatian political and electoral circumstances.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
19696
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.6.2002.
Posjeta: 1.860 *