Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v32i4.3428
Development of a Partial Proportional Odds Model for Pedestrian Injury Severity at Intersections
Xi Lu
; China Academy of Transportation Science, MOT
Zhuanglin Ma
; Chang’an University, College of Transportation Engineering
Steven I-Jy Chien
; New Jersey Institute of Technology, Chang'an University
Ying Xiong
; Xi’an Traffic Information Center
Sažetak
Pedestrian injury in crashes at intersections often results from complex interaction among various factors. The factor identification is a critical task for understanding the causes and improving the pedestrian safety. A total of 2,614 crash records at signalized and non-signalized intersections were applied. A Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model was developed to examine the factors influencing Pedestrian Injury Severity (PIS) because it can accommodate the ordered response nature of injury severity. An elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify the marginal effects of contributing factors on the likelihood of PIS. For signalized intersections, seven explanatory variables significantly affect the likelihood of PIS, in which five explanatory variables violate the Proportional Odds Assumption (POA). Local driver, truck, holiday, clear weather, and hit-and-run lead to higher likelihood of severer PIS. For non-signalized intersections, six explanatory variables were found significant to the PIS, in which three explanatory variables violate the POA. Young and adult drivers, senior pedestrian, bus/van, divided road, holiday, and darkness tend to increase the likelihood of severer PIS. The vehicles of large size and heavy weight (e.g. truck, bus/van) are significant factors to the PIS at both signalized and non-signalized intersections. The proposed PPO model has demonstrated its effectiveness in identifying the effects of contributing factors on the PIS.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
242352
URI
Datum izdavanja:
16.7.2020.
Posjeta: 755 *