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Nafta i Plin, Vol. 40 No. 166, 2020.

Stručni rad

Greenhouse gas emissions of the power sector in the Southeastern Europe

Vladimir Franki orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-7723-3510 ; Energy Platform Living Lab, Zagreb
Alfredo Višković ; Energy Platform Living Lab, Zagreb
Darko Pavlović orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-0064-0900 ; Plinacro d.o.o.

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Sažetak

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are growing every year. The understanding that the quality of human life is directly related to the environmental impact of the electricity sector is at the heart of a new energy paradigm oriented towards decarbonizing energy processes. In this context, it is extremely important to be fully aware of how much CO2 emissions are released into the atmosphere by the electricity sector. The research presented in this paper analyses direct emissions from electricity generation in the countries of Southeast Europe (SEE). Also, the impact of the main factors influencing CO2 emissions is observed, such as: hydrological conditions, changes in demand, volatility of fuel prices and emission units.

Ključne riječi

CO2 emissions; emissions trading; electricity sector; neighbouring countries; Southeast Europe (SEE)

Hrčak ID:

249894

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/249894

Datum izdavanja:

14.1.2021.

Podaci na drugim jezicima: hrvatski

Posjeta: 1.900 *

Publication date: 18 January 2021

Volume: 40

Issue: 166.

Pages: 33-41

DOI:

Article Information (continued)

Categories:

Subject: Stručni rad

Categories:

Subject: Professional Paper

Keywords:

Keyword: emisije CO2

Keyword: trgovanje emisijskim jedinicama

Keyword: elektroenergetski sektor

Keyword: gravitirajuća regija

Keyword: oistočna Europa (JIE)

Keywords:

Keyword: CO2 emissions

Keyword: emissions trading

Keyword: electricity sector

Keyword: neighbouring countries

Keyword: Southeast Europe (SEE)

Emisije stakleničkih plinova elektroenergetskog sektora Jugoistočne Europe

Translated Title (en): Greenhouse gas emissions of the power sector in the Southeastern Europe

[ORCID] Vladimir Franki[1]

Email: vfranki@riteh.hr

 

Energy Platform Living Lab Energy Platform Living Lab Unska ulica 3, 10 000 Zagreb

[ORCID] Vladimir Franki[*][1]

 

Energy Platform Living Lab Energy Platform Living Lab Unska ulica 3, 10 000 Zagreb

[ORCID] Alfredo Višković[*][2]

 

Energy Platform Living Lab Energy Platform Living Lab Unska ulica 3, 10 000 Zagreb

[ORCID] Darko Pavlović[*][3]

 

Plinacro d.o.o. Plinacro Ltd. Savska cesta 88a, 10000, Zagreb

Author notes:

Correspondence to: [*] Vladimir Franki,Energy Platform Living Lab,Unska ulica 3, 10 000 Zagreb vfranki@riteh.hr

Abstract

Globalni napori usmjereni prema smanjenju emisija stakleničkih plinova svake godine jačaju. Shvaćanje da je kvaliteta ljudskog života direktno povezana s utjecajem elektroenergetskog sektora na okoliš u srcu je nove energetske paradigme usmjerene prema dekarbonizaciji energetskih procesa. U tom kontekstu, od izuzetne je važnosti u potpunosti osvijestiti koliku količinu emisija CO2 elektroenergetski sektor ispušta u atmosferu. Istraživanje prikazano u ovom radu analizira izravne emisije proizvodnje električne energije u državama Jugoistočne Europe (JIE). Također, promatra se i utjecaj glavnih faktora koji utječu na emisije CO2, poput: hidroloških uvjeta, promjena u potražnji, volatilnosti cijena goriva i emisijskih jedinica.

Translated Abstract

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are growing every year. The understanding that the quality of human life is directly related to the environmental impact of the electricity sector is at the heart of a new energy paradigm oriented towards decarbonizing energy processes. In this context, it is extremely important to be fully aware of how much CO2 emissions are released into the atmosphere by the electricity sector. The research presented in this paper analyses direct emissions from electricity generation in the countries of Southeast Europe (SEE). Also, the impact of the main factors influencing CO2 emissions is observed, such as: hydrological conditions, changes in demand, volatility of fuel prices and emission units.

Energetski sektor čini okosnicu gospodarstva, dostupnost i cijena energije određuje konkurentnost pojedine ekonomije, a količina energije koju osoba potroši određuje njen standard življenja. Nažalost, energetski sektor je i veliki onečišćivač. Zbog povećane svijesti o negativnom utjecaju energetskog sektora na okoliš, energetske strategije zemalja diljem svijeta okreću se održivim rješenjima. Samim time, cijeli sektor prolazi kroz fundamentalnu transformaciju svoje strukture. Ključni cilj ove transformacije je smanjenje štetnog utjecaja na okoliš ponajprije ograničavanjem globalnog zagrijavanja. Vodena para, metan i ugljični dioksid (CO2) zajedno s drugim atmosferskim plinovima apsorbiraju odlazeće infracrveno zračenje i time uzrokuju porast Zemljine temperature – ovaj fenomen poznat je kao efekt staklenika [1]. Kako je industrijski razvoj praćen povećanom emisijom CO2 u atmosferu, problem globalnog zagrijavanja pojavio se kao globalno pitanje koje je izazvalo značajnu zabrinutost istraživača i kreatora politike. Neke procjene zaključuju da je samo CO2 odgovoran za oko 64% pojačanog efekta staklenika [2]. Elektroenergetski sektor najveći je pojedinačni emiter CO2. Prema nedavnom izvješću IEA-e, ugljen, prirodni plin i nafta i dalje čine 39.3%, 22.9% i 4.1% udjela u ukupnoj proizvodnji električne energije [3]. Slijedom toga, upravno se od njega i očekuju najveći napori kada je u pitanju primjena novih tehnoloških rješenja koja mogu te iste emisije reducirati. Slijedom toga, okvirna konvencija Ujedinjenih nacija o klimatskim promjenama (UNFCCC) [4] i Kyoto protokol bile su jedne od prvih inicijativa usmjerenih ka ublažavanju globalnih emisija stakleničkih plinova. Razvoj energetskog sektora sada je više nego ikad usko povezan s njegovim učincima na okoliš. Uzevši u obzir sve navedeno, proučavanje emisija CO2 od primarne je važnosti pri odabiru pravog puta razvoja energetskog sektora. Puta koji nije jednostavno odabrati s obzirom da uspješnost energetskog sektora ne određuje isključivo dobit koju donosi, već cjenovna dostupnost, pouzdanost opskrbe i održivost energije koju pruža [5]. Kao rezultat povećane zabrinutosti u vezi s pitanjima zaštite okoliša, postoji niz pokušaja kvantificiranja količine emisija stakleničkih plinova u atmosferu. Poznate organizacije poput Međuvladinog panela za klimatske promjene (IPCC) [6] i UNFCCC [7] razvile su metodologije za izračunavanje emisija stakleničkih plinova kao alat za potporu borbi protiv klimatskih promjena. Uz to, postoji više istraživačkih radova koji analiziraju emisije energetskog sektora. Međutim, pažljivim ispitivanjem dostupne literature, može se vidjeti da postoji određeni „knowledge gap“ kad je riječ o utvrđivanju utjecaja tržišnih i regulatornih čimbenika na emisije ugljikovog dioksida od strane proizvođača električne energije. Iako postoje iznimke [8][9], radovi se uglavnom bave politikama i tehnologijama usmjerenim smanjenju CO2, no zanemaruju druge faktore koji utječu na emisije. Neka od područja istraživanja emisija uključuju emisijske performanse vozila [10][11][12], brodova [13], zrakoplova [14], zgrada [15][16], gradova [17], industrije čelika [18], cementne industrije [19][20] i građevinarstva [21]. Što se tiče emisija stakleničkih plinova elektroenergetskog sektora, radovi se većinom fokusiraju na potencijal smanjenja emisija istražujući učinke optimizacije voznog reda elektrana [22], korištenje komunalnog krutog otpada [23] i proizvodnje energije iz biomase [24] i putem kogeneracije [25][26]. Pregledom dostupne literature može se zamijetiti manjak radova fokusiranih na razvijanje metodologija za predviđanje emisija [27]. Ovaj rad analizira emisije CO2 elektroenergetskog sektora gravitirajuće regije, odnosno Jugoistočne Europe (JIE). Kao prvo, uspostavljen je matematički okvir potreban za postupak optimizacije elektroenergetskog tržišta. Prikupljena je detaljna baza podataka o elektroenergetskim sektorima promatranih zemalja temeljem koje je stvoren virtualni model elektroenergetskog sustava JIE. Nakon provedene tržišne analize, utvrđene su izravne emisije CO2 nastale zbog proizvodnje električne energije. Izrađena je analiza osjetljivosti koja proučava utjecaj odabranih tržišnih čimbenika na emisije CO2 i prikazana je usporedba s referentnim scenarijem. Posebna pažnja posvećena je utjecaju cijena emisijskih dozvola na same emisije. Nakon uvoda u temu i pregleda dostupne literature, u drugom poglavlju prikazana je metodologija istraživanja. Treće poglavlje prikazuje područje interesa tržišne analize, dok četvrto donosi zaključak popraćen diskusijom rezultata.

Zahvale

Tekst zahvale

Appendices

Appendix

Tekst appendixa

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