Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.3325/cmj.2020.61.100
Application of a system dynamics model in forecasting the supply and age distribution of physicians
Danko Relić
orcid.org/0000-0001-6208-5888
; Department of Medical Statistics, Epidemiology and Medical Informatics, Andrija Štampar School of Public Health, University of Zagreb School of Medicine, Zagreb, Croatia
Jadranka Božikov
; Department of Medical Statistics, Epidemiology and Medical Informatics, Andrija Štampar School of Public Health, University of Zagreb School of Medicine, Zagreb, Croatia
Sažetak
Aim To predict the future supply and age distribution of
physicians with a simulation model, which can be used as
an advising tool for policymakers who decide on enroll-
ment and specialization training (ST) quotas at the nation-
al level.
Methods A simulation model was created using the sys-
tem dynamics (SD) method. Changes in the number of
physicians and their age distribution were projected in the
context of the expected future changes of the Croatian
population under different scenarios covering the period
from 2017 to 2041.
Results The two scenarios showed that Croatia would not
face physician shortage in the future. The scenario 1 pro-
jected that Croatia would certainly reach the current Eu-
ropean Union (EU) average of 360 physicians per 100 000
inhabitants by 2021, and that this figure would increase to
430 per 100 000 inhabitants by 2041. The scenario 2 sug-
gested a similar trend, with Croatia reaching the current
EU average by 2021 and the number of physicians increas-
ing to 451 per 100 000 inhabitants by 2041. Both scenarios
indicated that the Croatian physicians’ age distribution will
recover in favor of younger age groups of specialists.
Conclusion There is no need to increase the enrollment
into the medical schools to ensure sufficient number of
physicians per capita in Croatia, but it is necessary to keep
the recently reached level of 550 licenses for ST per year.
The developed dynamic model is available online and can
be adapted to the analysis of different scenarios in differ-
ent health care systems.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
253124
URI
Datum izdavanja:
14.6.2020.
Posjeta: 474 *