Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1632727
Analysis of forecasts of GDP growth and inflation for the Croatian economy
Silvija Vlah Jerić
Davor Zoričić
orcid.org/0000-0002-0206-3422
Denis Dolinar
orcid.org/0000-0001-9489-9990
Sažetak
The paper provides, for the first time, the analysis of the quality
of the GDP growth and inflation forecasts by multiple forecasters
for the Croatian economy. Forecast data of 6 different institutions
in the 2006–2015 period are analysed. Efficiency and biasedness
test are conducted following the Davies and Lahiri econometric
framework based on a three-dimensional panel dataset which
includes multiple individual forecasters, target years and forecast
horizons. In order to assess directional accuracy we follow the
approach by Pesaran and Timmermann. Based on MAE values we
find the forecasts to be accurate on a scale comparable to the
European Commission’s forecast reported in 2016 for the EU and
the euro area. GDP growth forecasts exhibit a strong bias related
to a notable tendency to over-predict GDP growth. In the case of
inflation forecasting the bias is still present for all forecasters,
albeit less pronounced and not statistically significant for all of
them. There is evidence of forecast inefficiency regarding both
analysed variables. Overall, inflation forecasting presents less of a
challenge due to specific monetary policy strategy and inaccurate
national accounts data accompanied by extended revision process
of the GDP data by the government’s statistics office.
Ključne riječi
GDP growth rate; inflation; forecasting; threedimensional panel
Hrčak ID:
254386
URI
Datum izdavanja:
9.2.2021.
Posjeta: 627 *