Kineziologija, Vol. 31 No. 2, 1999.
Izvorni znanstveni članak
Evaluation of potential competition performance of young cross-country skiers based on hierarchical regression analysis and expert modelling
Janez Pustovrh
; Faculty of Sport, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Bojan Jošt
; Faculty of Sport, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
Sažetak
On a sample of 44 Slovenian cross-country skiers, aged 13-14 years, an attempt of evaluation of competition performance by means of rank-order (hierarchical) regression analysis and expert modelling has been made. Both methodological procedures have the same basis, that is a reduced prognostic performance model, in which motor, morphological and functional dimensions of the psychosomatic status of competitors are arranged hierarchically. By means of rank-order (hierarchical) regression analysis, 46% of the competition performance of the subjects has been explained. By the procedure of expert modelling, the prognostic competition performance of subjects has been assessed at all levels of the reduced prognostic performance model. A high degree of agreement between the results obtained by the two procedures of evaluation of competition performance (r= 0.86) has been established. The validity of the expert modelling procedure has been determined by linear correlation between the dimensions of prognostic performance and the actual competition performance defined by FIS points (r = 0.55). In addition to the established model characteristics of young cross-country skiers in this age category, the study has, among other things, also confirmed the assumption about the high value of expert modelling in practical professional direction of the process of training athletes.
Ključne riječi
Hrčak ID:
256826
URI
Datum izdavanja:
29.4.1999.
Posjeta: 426 *