Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1868324
The risk assessment of construction project investment based on prospect theory with linguistic preference orderings
Xunjie Gou
Zeshui Xu
Wei Zhou
Enrique Herrera-Viedma
Sažetak
Multiple experts decision-making (MEDM) can be regarded as a
situation where a group of experts are invited to provide their
opinions by evaluating the given alternatives, and then select the
optimal alternative(s). As a useful linguistic expression model, linguistic preference orderings (LPOs) were established in which the
order of alternatives and the relationships between two adjacent
alternatives are fused well. Considering that prospect theory has
the superiority in depicting risk attitudes (risk seeking for losses
and risk aversion for gains) during the uncertain decision-making
process, this paper develops a consensus model based on prospect theory to deal with MEDM problems with LPOs. Firstly, each
LPO provided by expert is transformed into the responding
DHLPR with complete consistency. Then, the reference point of
expert is determined and the prospect preference matrix is established. Moreover, we can obtain the overall prospect consensus
degree for a MEDM problem by calculating the similarity degree
between individual and collective prospect preference matrix.
Furthermore, a consensus improvement method is developed to
complete the consensus reaching process. Finally, we apply the
proposed method to deal with a practical MEDM problem involving the construction project investment, and make some comparative analyses with existing methods.
Ključne riječi
Risk assessment; construction project investment; prospect theory; linguistic preference orderings; consensus
Hrčak ID:
301187
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.12.2021.
Posjeta: 132 *