Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1833746
A fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis model to predict bank bailouts: a study of the Spanish financial system
Elisabeth Bustos-Contell
Salvador Climent-Serrano
Gregorio LabatutSerer
Sažetak
This paper examines the restructuring of the Spanish financial system. This study is justified by the massive economic and social
impact of this process in Spain. Based on the annual accounts
and the annual reports of Spanish credit institutions, a model was
created to predict the possibility of bank failure or bailout. The
variables were selected following a review of the literature. They
included the legal form of the credit institution (savings bank versus bank), leverage, real estate investment, gross operating margin, staff costs and non-performing loans. Two variables that had
not previously been used in studies of this type were also
included in the model: risk-weighted assets and coverage (as part
of the provisions for non-performing loans). Fuzzy-set qualitative
comparative analysis (fsQCA) was used for the analysis. Use of
fsQCA is another novel aspect of this study. This technique has
never been used to predict corporate bankruptcy or the failure of
credit institutions. Proposals were made and tested using data on
Spanish banks and savings banks for the year 2010, a critical year
for the Spanish financial system. The results yield several interesting conclusions. First, greater leverage increases the probability of
survival, contrary to the opinion of most scholars. This result
shows that the problem facing Spanish credit institutions was the
closure of international markets, not the level of debt. Another
key conclusion is that financial institutions with higher staff costs
have a greater chance of survival. Therefore, the widespread policy of reducing human resource costs should be reconsidered.
Finally, the risk-weighted assets measure offers an excellent predictor of failure of credit institutions, as well as providing other
benefits, which substantially increase the value of this measure.
Ključne riječi
Bankruptcy; bank failure; insolvency; bailout; riskweighted assets; staff costs; leverage
Hrčak ID:
301372
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.12.2021.
Posjeta: 372 *