Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1968309
Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China
Daiwei Jiang
Yixin Chang
Fanglei Zhong
Wenge Yao
Yongnian Zhang
Xiaojiang Ding
Chunlin Huang
Sažetak
Precise multi-scenario projections of future economic outputs based
on localised interpretations of global scenarios and major growth
drivers are important for understanding long-term economic
changes. However, few studies have focussed on localised interpretations, and many assume regional uniformity or use key parameters that are recursive or extrapolated by mathematical methods.
This study provides a more intuitive and robust economic framework for projecting regional economic growth based on a neoclassical economic model and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)
scenarios. A non-uniform version of SSP2 (the middle-of-the-road
scenario) was developed, and more detailed population projections
for China were adopted using municipal-level data for 340 districts
and parameter settings based on China’s recent development. The
results show that China’s GDP will vary substantially across SSPs by
2050. Per capita GDP ranges from 19,300 USD under SSP3 (fragmentation) to 41,100 USD under SSP5 (conventional development).
Per capita GDP under SSP1 (sustainability) is slightly higher than
under SSP2, but lower on average than under SSP5. However, SSP1
is a better choice overall because environmental quality and equity
are higher. Per capita GDP growth will generally be higher in relatively low-income regions by 2050, and the upper-middle-income
provinces will become China’s new engine for economic growth.
Ključne riječi
GDP projection; shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); neoclassical economic model; localised scenario; China
Hrčak ID:
302288
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 162 *