Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2053781
Some considerations about tourist arrivals and the COVID-19 pandemic – evidence from Slovenia and Croatia
Sergej Gričar
Violeta Šugar
orcid.org/0000-0003-1410-6300
Tea Baldigara
Sažetak
In late 2019 and early 2020, a sudden but not unexpected external shock occurred in the tourism industry. This study presents an
explorative analysis of the literature review discussing a predicted
exogenous shock in tourism caused by the appearance of viruses.
Furthermore, the vector autoregressive (V.A.R.) models and panel
econometrics is used to analyse and model the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemics on tourist arrivals in Slovenia and Croatia.
Applied analysis is used to test tourism artefacts in the short term
on daily data for 2020. The results of econometric modelling and
data plotting confirm significant volatilities in the analysed timeseries and their peculiar response to the influence of the COVID19 pandemic on tourist arrivals. Therefore, innovative tourism policy and management should not expect pre-pandemic values and
demand; moreover, tourist expectations will change drastically in
a calamitous decade, while several other determinants, not only
COVID-19, will influence tourist arrivals. The study is novel in two
respects. First, the study adds value to empirical research on the
determinants of tourism demand. Moreover, the study can be
considered a starting point for further short-, medium- and longterm econometric analyses of sudden shocks affecting tourism
demand and government decisions affecting tourism supply.
Ključne riječi
COVID-19 pandemic; Mediterranean tourist destinations; panel econometrics; time-series; tourist arrivals; vector autoregressive (V.A.R.) models
Hrčak ID:
303018
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 144 *