Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2076143
Studying the cyclicality of the economy and prediction of new high risk of economic crises: a case study on the European countries from 1995 to 2018
Ana Maria Mihaela Iordache
Ionela-Cătălina Zamfir
Ionescu Alexandru
Sažetak
From ancient time the economies had periods of expansion followed
by recession, each crisis was determined by various internal
or external factors. With globalization, economic interconnection
and the liberalization of resource exchange between states, high
risk of economic crises have sprung up. The main purpose of the
article is to determine a data model, using specific data analysis
techniques, and based on it to study the economic cyclicality in
Europe and the prediction of a possible economic crisis. The
study was conducted on a number of 37 indicators selected from
11 categories, a set of 29 countries in Europe and over a period
of 24 years (19952018) using the K-Means algorithm. Grouping
the data for each country in three classes and describing each
class by taking into account the variables with the highest discriminative
power, leads to the main conclusion that in the next
several years, an economic crisis in Europe has a high probability
to be a reality.
Ključne riječi
k-means; classification; cyclicality; crisis; macroeconomics; data analysis
Hrčak ID:
303731
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 178 *