Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2023.2179505
Estimating the effect of long-term mechanism for real estate in China: a regression discontinuity approach
Shigang Zheng
Sažetak
Housing prices in China have risen dramatically in recent decades,
giving rise to bubble concerns. Many studies show that shortterm
regulation of real estate market is ineffective, which drove
central government to propose the construction of a long-term
mechanism for real estate in late 2016. However, few studies
have been conducted to estimate its effects. This article highlights
the effects of the long-term mechanism on housing prices, similar
to a quasi-natural experiment, with the proposal of the long-term
mechanism. In this context, the study was conducted with the
end of 2016 as a breakpoint, using the RDiT method and panel
data for 35 large- and medium-sized cities from 2009 to 2021, to
find out whether the long-term mechanism has stabilized housing
prices or not. The results reveal that the long-term mechanism
dramatically reduced the divergence and dispersion of housing
prices from the long-term equilibrium level. Further study shows
that there is significant heterogeneity in the impact of the longterm
mechanism on housing prices across cities, with significant
effects in second-tier cities but not in first-tier cities, and with significant
effects in central and western cities but not in eastern cities.
Therefore, we suggest that the eastern, including the first-tier
cities, remain the focus of the construction of the long-term
mechanism in the future, and continue to implement short-term
regulation for key cities, and build a system that coordinates with
the long-term mechanism.
Ključne riječi
Real estate; long-term mechanism; regression discontinuity
Hrčak ID:
306488
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 154 *