Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2023.2180053
An exploratory and comparative assessment of the tourist circulation at the level of some countries of the South-Eastern European union in the current pandemic context
Anca-Gabriela Turtureanu
Rodica Pripoaie
Carmen-Mihaela Cretu
Carmen- Gabriela Sîrbu
Emanuel Ştefan Marinescu
Florentina Chiţu
Laurentiu- Gabriel Talaghir
Sažetak
The coronavirus epidemic (COVID19) has affected the global economy
and the services sector. Quarantine measures related to travel
restrictions have led to an unprecedented decline in the tourism
industry with repercussions on tourism service providers, transport
companies and state budgets. Travel is necessary for tourism, therefore,
any factor that prevents travel can have a profound impact on
the tourism industry. In the current pandemic context, the forecast
in the field of tourist travel has played an important role in supporting
the revival of this sector. In this study, econometric and interpretive
methods were combined to predict the demand. In this study we
approached a prediction model that is based on the seasonal stationary
and adjustment of observed and FFT data. Experimental
results show that the proposed prediction model has demonstrated
a good medium-term forecast and can be used successfully in short
and medium periods of time. For a certification of the exploratory
evaluation of tourism forecasts there were comparatively analyzed
the results obtained for three countries in south-eastern Central
Europe, countries with similar natural and anthropic tourist resources
(Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania).
Ključne riječi
Covid-19; tourism demand; forecast; Fast Fourier Transformation; South- Central Europe
Hrčak ID:
306511
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.3.2023.
Posjeta: 121 *