Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2129408
The asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade balance: evidence from China and its trade partners
Wei Jiang
Guanghui Liu
Sažetak
The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the impact of exchange
rate changes on the trade balance of China and its major trading
partners. In the past, many studies have been focussed on the linear
effect of exchange rate change, but in this paper, a non-linear
Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model is proposed.
Empirical results show that there are nonlinear and asymmetric
effects on the trade balance of exchange rate. In particular, the
effect of exchange rate appreciation on Sino-US trade balance is
more significant than that of depreciation. A genuine devaluation of
the domestic currency would improve the balance of the domestic
trade. However, the opposite effect is found in the case of Sino-
Japan and the Euro, and the depreciation of the currency will make
the trade balance worse. These results provide a solid basis for
understanding the relation of exchange rate variation and trade balance.
In terms of economic reality, it is also a useful reference for
adjusting exchange rate and commercial policy.
Ključne riječi
Nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL); exchange rate changes; bilateral trade balance; asymmetry analysis; China
Hrčak ID:
306675
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.4.2023.
Posjeta: 180 *