Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2129409
Is presidential popularity a threat or encouragement for investors?
Chi-Wei Su
Xi Yuan
Muhammad Umar
Tsangyao Chang
Sažetak
The economic situation of the post-epidemic is facing huge downward
risks, and the government actively introduces stimulus measures
to improve the current economic situation. In this crisis, the
president’s role in asset price gradually deepened. Hence, we utilise
a wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach to uncover the
complex and unstable relationships between presidential popularity
and the currency performance of asset price. We find the significant
negative impact of the government popularity on the stock market
and oil prices, especially in the medium quantile. This suggests that
political stalemates will not always be suitable for financial markets.
Instead, this will hinder the investment because it expresses the
uncertainty of the direction. On the contrary, the U.S. dollar presents
a highly positive relationship with the government popularity.
Investors can avoid the trust risk of the president through the
adjustment of the asset portfolio. The result is consistent with the
asset pricing model, suggesting that investor sentiments significantly
influence the performance of assets. Meanwhile, the duration
of impacts caused by short-term shock will eventually be repaired
for a long time. The approval ratings will harm the investor sentiment
in the short term, but the market will digest this over time
Ključne riječi
Political sentiment; financial market; assets prices; presidential approval rating; quantile-on-quantile; wavelet
Hrčak ID:
306676
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.4.2023.
Posjeta: 214 *