Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2142260
Is a consumer loan a catalyst for confidence?
Chi Wei Su
Fangying Liu
Meng Qin
Tsangyao Chnag
Sažetak
In the context of the global economic downturn, the approach
guided by consumer loans (CL) to boost consumer confidence is a
feasible way to promote the internal circulation of the Chinese
economy. Therefore, we use a time-varying rolling-window
approach to identify how CL affects the consumer confidence index
(CCI). We find that CL can be seen as vital support for promoting
confidence because it can ease liquidity constraints and improve
consumption levels. The empirical outcome is supported by the
Rational Expectations Perpetual Income Hypothesis (RE-PIH),
emphasizing that increasing CL can boost consumer confidence.
Conversely, CCI has both positive and negative effects on CL. The
positive effects suggest that consumers’ optimistic confidence leads
them to increase borrowing, which in turn creates a heavier debt
burden. This statement cannot be supported by the negative effect
due to consumers’ blind self-confidence will cause cognitive bias,
which is not conducive to the loan market development. Against
the backdrop of increased global uncertainty due to the COVID-19
pandemic and the government’s continuous adjustment of loan
policies, consumers can effectively optimise their consumption decision-
making through borrowing. The policymaker can maintain
loan stability by effectively promoting consumer confidence and
raising the consumption level of the whole society.
Ključne riječi
Consumer loans; consumer confidence index; causal relationship; rolling window
Hrčak ID:
306724
URI
Datum izdavanja:
30.4.2023.
Posjeta: 212 *