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Nafta i Plin, Vol. 44. No. 182.-183., 2024.

Stručni rad

The EU’s energy security requires new and improved existing models for crisis resilience

Gordana Sekulić orcid id orcid.org/0000-0002-8193-6112

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Sažetak

Strategic changes in the E’s energy sector with the growing threats of crises (geopolitical, economic, price, technical-technological, cyber, climate, etc.) require new and improved models of energy security that are adapted to a quick response to disruptions and a green energy. For this reason, the paper explores trends and some good practices from the past and predictions of future energy needs that „carry“ the majority of existing and future consumption, which points to several key links in security of supply, namely:
■ Domestic energy production is the safest form of supply, which is contributed by the development of RES with the need for equal treatment of the production of already modest quantities of hydrocarbons, whose import dependence is about 90 percent, and which will dominate consumption for the next ten years.
■ The diversification of the energy mix, which, according to the new forecasts, will change towards the dominance of RES more slowly than the set goals due to the consequences of the crises in the period 2020–2022 and the existing limitations such as: the availability of technologies, the development of electricity infrastructure and storage capacities (electrolyzers, battery storage, etc.), the slowdown in economic growth, differences in development, etc. In doing so, energy efficiency would be of particular importance for achieving the target green energy structure and greenhouse gas emissions.
■ Further diversification of energy products and strategic raw materials import.
■ Creating new models of energy security, adapted to significantly higher consumption and production of RES and electricity. In addition, existing models of security of supply for oil, petroleum products and natural gas will necessarily be adapted to lower consumption.
■ Energy security and economic factors (economic growth and development, inflation, competitiveness, prices, investments) are interrelated with the effects on business stability and success and quality of life, which is an additional risk in less developed countries (including Croatia).

Ključne riječi

energy security; crises; models; transition

Hrčak ID:

323259

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/323259

Datum izdavanja:

15.12.2024.

Podaci na drugim jezicima: hrvatski

Posjeta: 0 *

Publication date: 15 December 2024

Volume: 44

Issue: 182. - 183.

Pages: 37-49

DOI:

Article Information (continued)

Categories:

Subject: Stručni rad

Categories:

Subject: Professional Paper

Keywords:

Keyword: energetska sigurnost

Keyword: krize

Keyword: modeli

Keyword: tranzicija

Keywords:

Keyword: energy security

Keyword: crises

Keyword: models

Keyword: transition

Energetska sigurnosta zahtijeva nove i poboljšane postojeće modele otpornosti na krize

Translated Title (en): The EU’s energy security requires new and improved existing models for crisis resilience

[ORCID] Gordana Sekulić[1]

Email: gordana2013@gmail.com

 

energetski analitičar energy analyst

[ORCID] Gordana Sekulić[*][1]

 

energetski analitičar energy analyst

Author notes:

Correspondence to: [*] Gordana Sekulić, energetski analitičar gordana2013@gmail.com

Abstract

Strateške promjene u energetici Ea uz rastuće opasnosti od kriza (geopolitičkih, ekonomskih, cjenovnih, tehničko-tehnoloških, klimatskih, kibernetskih i dr.) zahtijevaju nove i poboljšane postojeće modele energetske sigurnosti koji su prilagođeni brzom reagiranju na poremećaje i zelenoj energiji. Zbog toga su u radu istraživani trendovi i neke dobre prakse iz prošlosti te predviđanja budućih potreba energenata koji „nose“ glavninu postojeće i buduće potrošnje, a što upućuje na nekoliko ključnih karika sigurnosti opskrbe i to: ■ Domaća proizvodnja energije je najsigurniji oblik opskrbe čemu doprinosi razvoj OIE uz potrebu jednakog tretmana i proizvodnje ionako skromnih količina ugljikovodika čija je uvozna zavisnost 90-ak posto i koji će dominirati u potrošnji sljedećih desetak godina. ■ Diverzificiranost energetskog miksa koji će se, prema novim predviđanjima, mijenjati prema dominaciji OIE sporije od postavljenih ciljeva zbog posljedica kriza u razdoblju 2020. – 2022. i postojećih ograničenja kao što su: dostupnost tehnologija, razvijenost elektroenergetske infrastrukture i kapaciteta za skladištenje (elektrolizatora, baterijskih spremnika i dr.), usporavanja ekonomskoga rasta, razlika u razvijenosti i dr. Pritom bi energetska učinkovitost imala posebno veliki značaj za dostizanje ciljane zelene energetske strukture i emisija stakleničkih plinova. ■ Daljnja diverzifikacija uvoza energenata i strateških sirovina. ■ Stvaranje novih modela energetske sigurnosti, prilagođenih znatno većoj potrošnji i proizvodnji OIE te električne energije. sto, postojeći modeli sigurnosti opskrbe naftom, naftnim derivatima i prirodnim plinom nužno će se prilagođavati manjoj potrošnji. ■ Energetska sigurnost i ekonomski čimbenici (ekonomski rast i razvijenost, inflacija, konkurentnost, cijene, ulaganja) međusobno su povezani s učincima na stabilnost i uspješnost poslovanja i kvalitetu življenja, što je dodatni rizik u manje razvijenim državama (među kojima je i Hrvatska).

Translated Abstract

Strategic changes in the E’s energy sector with the growing threats of crises (geopolitical, economic, price, technical-technological, cyber, climate, etc.) require new and improved models of energy security that are adapted to a quick response to disruptions and a green energy. For this reason, the paper explores trends and some good practices from the past and predictions of future energy needs that „carry“ the majority of existing and future consumption, which points to several key links in security of supply, namely: ■ Domestic energy production is the safest form of supply, which is contributed by the development of RES with the need for equal treatment of the production of already modest quantities of hydrocarbons, whose import dependence is about 90 percent, and which will dominate consumption for the next ten years. ■ The diversification of the energy mix, which, according to the new forecasts, will change towards the dominance of RES more slowly than the set goals due to the consequences of the crises in the period 2020–2022 and the existing limitations such as: the availability of technologies, the development of electricity infrastructure and storage capacities (electrolyzers, battery storage, etc.), the slowdown in economic growth, differences in development, etc. In doing so, energy efficiency would be of particular importance for achieving the target green energy structure and greenhouse gas emissions. ■ Further diversification of energy products and strategic raw materials import. ■ Creating new models of energy security, adapted to significantly higher consumption and production of RES and electricity. In addition, existing models of security of supply for oil, petroleum products and natural gas will necessarily be adapted to lower consumption. ■ Energy security and economic factors (economic growth and development, inflation, competitiveness, prices, investments) are interrelated with the effects on business stability and success and quality of life, which is an additional risk in less developed countries (including Croatia).

Uvod

Energetska sigurnost u fokusu je interesa i aktivnosti svih sudionika društva, od vlada, znanstvenih i stručnih organizacija do građana. Suštinski, ona postoji ograničeno i uglavnom svaka kriza uzrokovana snažnijim promjenama u geopolitici, ekonomiji, energetici i sl. pokazuje njezine slabosti. Sagledava se napredak u otpornost na krize u Eu kao posljedica diverzifikacije pravaca uvoza energenata, formiranih obveznih zaliha nafte, obveznog skladištenja plina, izgradnje kapaciteta ukapljenog prirodnog plina, rasta (domaćih) obnovljivih izvora energije (OIE) i dr. Istovremeno, ostvaruje se dugoročni trend pada domaće proizvodnje ionako skromnih količina ugljikovodika koji dominiraju u energetskoj potrošnji pri čemu se glavnina količina uvozi. Zapaža se da su krize (zdravstveno gospodarska, cjenovna, energetska, geopolitička) u razdoblju 2020. – 2022. i ostvareni trendovi potrošnje energenata utjecali na predviđanja sporije tranzicije, posebno do 2035. Pritom će sve veća prisutnost zelene energije zahtijevati stvaranje drugačijih modela sigurnosti opskrbe. Energetska sigurnost se definira kao neprekidna dostupnost izvora energije po pristupačnoj cijeni. Usto, IEA (International Energy Agency – Međunarodna agencija za energiju) sagledava da energetska sigurnost ima nekoliko aspekata: dugoročna sigurnost uglavnom se bavi pravovremenim ulaganjima u opskrbu energijom u skladu s gospodarskim kretanjima i ekološkim potrebama. S druge strane, kratkoročna energetska sigurnost usmjerena je na sposobnost energetskog sustava da brzo reagira na nagle promjene u ravnoteži ponude i potražnje (Safety Culture). Uvažavajući spomenute aspekte energetske sigurnosti, a uz to im pridodajući i (geo)političke (ne)stabilnosti, suradnju s velikim proizvođačima energije, različitost ekonomske razvijenosti i dr. istražena su neka relevantna strateška područja sa svrhom uočavanja slabosti i prilika za povećanje otpornosti na buduće krize i uopće sigurnost opskrbe u održivom gospodarstvu i društvu. To su sljedeća područja: ■ Učinci energetske politike na domaću proizvodnju energije kao najsigurniji vid energetske sigurnosti. ■ Diverzifikacija uvoza energenata i strateških sirovina uz jačanje ekonomskih, političkih i društvenih odnosa s državama izvoznicama. ■ Makroekonomski okvir energetske sigurnosti. Istraživanje je fokusirano na E27 (u daljnjem tekstu E) uz usporedbu s razvijenim i manje razvijenim državama, kao što su SAD, Kina, OECD1 i ne-OECD, pritom imajući u vidu i razlike u razvijenost među državama članicama Ea. Analizom je djelomično obuhvaćena i Hrvatska.

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