Izvorni znanstveni članak
https://doi.org/10.62598/JVA.10.2.4.9
Reevaluating the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Albania's Economic Growth: Policy Implications for Growth and Openness
Florian Miti
; University “Ismail Qemali” Vlore, Albania
Sažetak
Based on the standard vector error correction model with quarterly data, this study focuses on the relationship between infl ows of exports, foreign investments together with Gross Domestic Product, of the last two decades (2004-2024) in Albania to research in both the short-run dynamics and the long-run trends. A drawback of using diverse secondary data with diff ering methods of data collection and especially dealing with the economic transition period, is that it presents a challenge in terms of data reliability which may result in controversial conclusions even for studies on the same country.By applying the impulse analysis, it reveals that foreign direct investment infl ows cause an almost negligible (positive) fl uctuation in exports and a (negative) fl uctuation in GDP in the long run. Conversely, exports, after a short-term negative impact, lead to an increase in FDI infl ows in the long run and a slight increase in the GDP level. Finally, GDP has a positive eff ect on both variables. The result, therefore, is very important as it suggests that the government policy should focus more on openness, growth and exports—devaluating thus the role of FDI infl ows for the economy, at least in the short term.
Ključne riječi
Impulse analysis; FDI; Economic transition; GDP; Short-run dynamics; Long-run
Hrčak ID:
326485
URI
Datum izdavanja:
31.12.2024.
Posjeta: 0 *