Hrvatske vode, Vol. 32 No. 127, 2024.
Review article
Operation of the Sava SM2 forecasting hydrological and hydraulic model during the may 2023 flood event in the small basin Kupa
Sandro Josić
orcid.org/0009-0004-9234-3584
; Hidroprojekt-consult d.o.o., Zagreb, Hrvatska
*
Darko Barbalić
; Hrvatske vode, Zagreb, Hrvatska
* Corresponding author.
Abstract
In mid-May 2023, a thunderstorm hit a larger Croatian area. In addition to material damage, it caused flooding in the town areas of Gračac, Obrovac, Duga Resa, Hrvatska Kostajnica, Karlovac and Petrinja. As always in such circumstances, one questions the accuracy level of forecasting model results, particularly in case of forecasts for several days ahead, while also having in mind the needs of participants in operational flood defence. For these reasons, a preliminary analysis of the operation of the Sava SM2 forecasting hydrological and hydraulic model was conducted during this flood event as a contribution to a review of its performance in operational use. Although the focus of the analysed event was somewhat further south in the Otuča/Zrmanja basin, flooding in the Kupa basin, particularly Defended Area 11, and a series of flood defence sections also required making decisions on the necessary measures, where forecasting information can be very useful. Considerations of the results of the NSE, PBIAS and RMSE statistics have revealed that the Sava SM2 is a very complex system requiring efficient management in order to provide maximal forecasting reliability for operational flood defence. Monitoring forecasting models’ operation should definitely be a systemic activity and recommendations have been provided regarding further
steps of its improvement, as well as potential activities.
Keywords
Sava SM2 model; forecast; NSE; PBIAS; RMSE; Kupa basin; Defended Area 11
Hrčak ID:
326882
URI
Publication date:
2.4.2024.
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