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ON USING MODEL PERFORMANCE STATISTICS IN APPLYING MODELS

Akula Venkatram ; Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA
Wenjun Qian ; Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Riverside, CA

Sažetak

This paper makes the case for developing a statistical model to describe the behavior of the residuals between model
estimates and corresponding observations. Using a framework that relates model estimates to corresponding observations, we show
that the distribution of the residuals can be conveniently characterized by the geometric mean, mg, and the geometric standard
deviation, sg, of the ratio of the observed to the model estimates of the variable of interest. We demonstrate the role of these statistics
in the application of the model. Postulating a linear relationship between the residual and the model estimate allows us to separate
the residual/model error into two components: one that is correlated to the model estimate and can be thus reduced in principle
through model improvement, and a component that can be reduced only by expanding the model input set. The second part of the
paper incorporates this description of model error into a graphical representation that builds upon that proposed by Taylor, A.
(2001).

Ključne riječi

Model performance; performance statistics; Taylor diagram; model evaluation; inherent error; model application

Hrčak ID:

64079

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/64079

Datum izdavanja:

12.12.2008.

Posjeta: 983 *