Izvorni znanstveni članak
A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH FOR SOLUTION OF TIME UPDATE PROBLEM DURING TOXIC WASTE PLUME SPREADING IN THE ATMOSPHERE
Radek Hofman
; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 08 Prague, Pod vodarenskou vezi 4, Czech Republic
Petr Pecha
; Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 08 Prague, Pod vodarenskou vezi 4, Czech Republic
Emilie Pechova
; Institute of Nuclear Research, Subdivision EGP, 250 68 Rez near Prague
Sažetak
Reliable and up to date information represents principal prerequisite for effective management of intervention operations
targeted on emergency situations during accidental releases of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Promising way of this trend
insists in development of assimilation techniques for improvement of model prognosis reliability on basis of optimal blending of
predictions with observations incoming from terrain. In this paper we are concentrating on the forecast procedure which generates
the new state predictions from the initial conditions standing for previous time. Two problems are encountered here. At first, the
resulting predictions from the previous time step can be assimilated with incoming data before the next time predictions are
evaluated. The initial conditions for the next time are then modified in advance and trajectory information accumulated from the
same beginning can become fuzzy. So, the trajectory models can have troubles how to propagate plume in the next time. At second,
reliable and up to date information at medium distances from the source of pollution represents basic inevitable conditions for
effective management of intervention operations targeted on consequence mitigation during emergency situations. But justifiability
of Gaussian plume model application in medium range distances is questionable. A simplified solution offers segmented Gaussian
plume model (SGPM) which can account stepwise for the time dynamics of the admixture release and hourly changes of
meteorological conditions. The extension of modelling to medium distances is facilitated by availability of the new quality of
gridded spatial short-term meteorological forecasts. The Czech meteorological service provides 3-D data in ALADIN format for
medium domain 160 km × 160 km around each nuclear power plant (NPP) in the Czech Republic. In the following text we are
describing the SGPM application in longer distances taking into account the new gridded meteorological predictions. The
comparison with former methodology is illustrated on one real meteorological situation from June 25, 2008.
Ključne riječi
Gaussian plume; Mesoscale domain; 3-D meteorological forecast; Time update,Data assimilation
Hrčak ID:
64311
URI
Datum izdavanja:
12.12.2008.
Posjeta: 777 *