Original scientific paper

Modelling Croatian Export Dynamics Using Global Macroeconometric Model

Saša Jakšić ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
Berislav Žmuk ; Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract

Five years following the occurrence of the global economic and financial crisis, Croatia is one of the few countries in the region whose export has still not recovered to the pre-crisis level. In order to properly account for international linkages and possible crisis spillover effects, a Global Vector AutoRegressive (GVAR) model is defined. The GVAR model is a consistent global macroeconometric model which enables modelling interactions between Croatia and a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the domestic variables are the main factor explaining Croatian export dynamics in the short run. However, in the long run, the main determinants of Croatian export are the US and German real exchange rates. These findings provide evidence in favour of low competitiveness of Croatian export.

Keywords

Global VAR; GFEVD; international trade; export; Croatia

Hrčak ID:

130321

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/130321

Publication date:

1.12.2014.

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