Original scientific paper

Probabilistic Models of Ultimate Strength Reduction of Damaged Ship

Branka Bužančić Primorac ; Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Split, Split, Croatia
Joško Parunov orcid.org/0000-0002-8566-4927 ; Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a probabilistic model of the reduction in the bending moment capacity of an oil tanker following grounding and collision accidents. The approach is based on the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using the probability distributions of damage parameters proposed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The reduction in ultimate strength in the case of grounding is calculated by applying existing design equations using the concept of the grounding damage index (GDI) and assuming grounding on a conically shaped rock. Design equations for collision damage are originally developed in the present paper by assuming rectangular box damage. The modified Paik-Mansour method is employed for residual strength assessment when developing the design equations. A case study is presented for an Aframax tanker resulting in the Weibull probability distributions fitted to the histograms of residual strength obtained with MC simulations. The obtained probability distributions are intended for structural reliability assessment of damaged ships.

Keywords

damaged tanker; ultimate strength; regression equation

Hrčak ID:

141793

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/141793

Publication date:

15.7.2015.

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