Original scientific paper
Beverage Specific Effect of Alcohol on Pancreatitis Mortality in Russia
Yury E. Razvodovsky
; Grodno State Medical University, Grodno, Belarus
Abstract
Pancreatitis is a major public health problem with high associated
economic costs. The incidence of pancreatitis has increased in many
European countries in recent decade. There is evidence that beverage preference may have modifying influence on pancreatitis risk independently of the amount of alcohol consumed. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between the consumption of different beverage types and pancreatitis mortality rates in Russia. Method: Time-series analytical modeling techniques (ARIMA) were used to examine the relation between the sale of
different alcoholic beverages (vodka, wine, beer) and age-standardized
male and female pancreatitis mortality data for the period 1970– 2005. Results: The analysis suggests that of the three beverages, vodka alone was associated with pancreatitis mortality. The estimated effects of vodka sales on the pancreatitis mortality rate are clearly statistically significant for both sexes: a 1 liter increase in vodka sales would result in a 10.3% increase in themale pancreatitis mortality rate and in 3.2% increase in female mortality rate. Conclusions: The findings from this study suggest that public health
efforts should focus on both reducing overall consumption and changing beverage preference away from distilled spirits in order to reduce alcohol-related mortality rates in Russia.
Keywords
pancreatitis mortality; beverage-specific alcohol sale; ARIMA time series analysis; Russia; 1970–2005
Hrčak ID:
147859
URI
Publication date:
15.12.2014.
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