Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2017.1314822
Predicting tourism demand by A.R.I.M.A. models
Biljana Petrevska
orcid.org/0000-0002-1238-4158
Abstract
The paper provides a short-run estimation of international tourism
demand focusing on the case of F.Y.R. Macedonia. For this purpose,
the Box–Jenkins methodology is applied and several alternative
specifications are tested in the modelling of original time series
and international tourist arrivals recorded in the period 1956–2013.
Upon the outcomes of standard indicators for accuracy testing, the
research identifies the model of A.R.I.M.A.(1,1,1) as most suitable for
forecasting. According to the research findings, a 13.9% increase in
international tourist arrivals is expected by 2018. The forecasted values
of the chosen model can assist in mitigating any potential negative
impacts, as well as in the preparation of a tourism development plan
for the country.
Keywords
Box–Jenkins methodology; forecasting; short-run estimation; tourism demand
Hrčak ID:
182580
URI
Publication date:
1.12.2017.
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