Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1699436
Aging and economic growth: is there a role for a two-child policy in China?
Yong Liu
Abstract
The current study seeks to determine the type of population policy
China should implement to effectively promote economic
growth, especially in the context of its aging population. Using
multiagent simulation technology, I integrate the two-child policy
into a complex model featuring population, resources, and
economic growth. My simulation results indicate that under the
constraining effect of aging on economic growth, the implementation
of a two-child policy alone could promote economic
growth, albeit in a limited fashion: it would be more economically
advantageous to combine a two-child policy with policy that promotes
human capital growth. These findings provide new evidence
regarding the relationship between population aging and
economic growth. It is insufficient to emphasize only a liberalization
of birth restrictions and promote population growth: rather,
a combination of various policies would be more successful. A
cluster of policies that aim to increase both fertility and investment
in human capital can effectively curb economic recession
otherwise caused by an aging population, and such a policy cluster
could concurrently increase the supply of new labor and
improve skills that appreciate with age.
Keywords
Agent-based simulation; aging society; China; economic growth; twochild policy
Hrčak ID:
254395
URI
Publication date:
9.2.2021.
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