Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.17559/TV-20201021110548

Risk Assessment of Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Different Unknown Measure Functions

Kai Sheng ; 1) Shenzhen Urban Public Safety and Technology Institute, No. 1, Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, 518000, China 2) College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Puzhu South Road, Nanjing 211816, Jiangsu, China
Xiaolin Lai ; Shenzhen Urban Public Safety and Technology Institute, No.1, Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, 518000, China
Yong Chen ; Shenzhen Urban Public Safety and Technology Institute, No.1, Fuhua 1st Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, 518000, China
Juncheng Jiang ; 1) College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Puzhu South Road, Nanjing 211816, Jiangsu, China 2) School of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Changzhou University, No.1 Gehu Road, Changzhou, 213164, China
Lin Zhou* ; 1) College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Puzhu South Road, Nanjing 211816, Jiangsu, China 2) School of Environmental and Safety Engineering, Changzhou University, No.1 Gehu Road, Changzhou, 213164, China

Abstract

Several risk factors threaten the safety of urban gas pipeline. How to effectively identify various risk factors affecting urban gas pipeline and put forward scientific risk assessment method is the focus in the field of urban safety research. To explore the uncertain factors in the process of gas pipeline risk assessment, and propose a practical assessment method, a three-layer index system for the risk assessment of urban gas pipeline was established using unascertained measure theory, which included 5 first-class evaluation factors and 34 second-class evaluation indexes. Four unascertained measure models (linear, parabolic, exponential and sinusoidal) were constructed, and the unascertained measure values of each evaluation index under four unknown measure function models were calculated. The weight of evaluation factors was determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and the confidence criterion was used for discriminant evaluation. Results demonstrate that the risk assessment models constructed with different measurement functions can effectively reduce the uncertainty of urban gas pipeline risk assessment, but for the same object, the risk level of the linear measurement model in 4# pipeline is lower than other measurement functions, and the risk level of sinusoidal measurement model in 8# pipeline is higher than other measurement functions. Therefore, considering the evaluation results under different measure functions and focusing on monitoring objects with different results is necessary when using unascertained measure theory for risk assessment. The conclusions obtained from this study clarify the application conditions of unascertained measure theory in urban gas pipeline risk assessment, which helps to reduce the uncertainty in the assessment process and improve the accuracy of the assessment results.

Keywords

credible degree recognition criteria; risk assessment; unascertained measure; unknown measure function; urban gas pipeline

Hrčak ID:

261337

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/261337

Publication date:

15.8.2021.

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