Transactions of FAMENA, Vol. 46 No. 2, 2022.
Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.21278/TOF.462028121
Estimation of Average Monthly Total Solar Radiation on a Horizontal Surface for the Central Anatolia Region: Example of Sivas Province
Bekir Yelmen
orcid.org/0000-0001-7655-530X
; Department of Environmental Protection Control, Adana Metropolitan Municipality, Adana, Turkey
Mutlu Tarık Çakır
orcid.org/0000-0002-0107-594X
; Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sivas University of Science and Technology, Sivas, Turkey
Çagrı Ün
; Department of Aut. Engineering, Çukurova University, Adana, Turkey
Abstract
In this study, in order to determine the solar energy potential in the Central Anatolia Region, the total solar radiation on the horizontal plane was evaluated with trigonometric functions (Models). During 1999-2019 in the region, monthly average values of total daily solar radiation coming to the horizontal plane was calculated with six different models. It was also compared with the values measured in the same time interval. Model 1 (Angstrom-Prescott-Page), Model 2 (Soler, Rietveld), Model 3 (Kılıc and Ozturk), Model 4 (Akinoglu and Ecevit), Model 5 (Bahel) and Model 6 (Louche) were used in the calculations. Regression coefficients were calculated for these models and the coefficients were used in the estimation of total solar radiation (SR). From these models, Model 2 and Model 3 regression values for many provinces in the Central Anatolia Region (CAR) are higher than other models. Model 3 (Kılıc and Ozturk) with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.986 showed the best predictive performance among the models examined. This model was compared to other models and the mean error of deviation (MBE) was found to be -0.060 and the root mean square error (RMSE) 0.707. However, considering the total SR, annual sunshine duration (SD) and average temperature, Model 4 (Akinoglu and Ecevit) showed the best predictive performance which indicates that it will be a suitable model for Sivas Province.
Keywords
solar radiation; Sivas; sunshine duration; solar energy; regression
Hrčak ID:
279203
URI
Publication date:
15.6.2022.
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