Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1954967
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tax revenues in the EU
Ioana-Laura Țibulcă
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an economic crisis with farreaching effects throughout the entire world. In the EU, governments face the need for policies that will counter the negative
economic effects. To do this, they require reliable tax revenue
predictions to help plan and finance policies that will set the
European economies on the road to recovery. The current study
aims to offer up-to-date accurate forecasts of tax revenues for the
27 EU member states for the period 2020-2022. A time trend
model regression model adjusted with the unemployment rate is
estimated for each member state using data for the period 1995-
2019. Based on this regression model, forecasts for tax revenues
are made. The results show a decline in tax revenues in 2020 and
2021 followed by a slight recovery in 2022 for most EU member
states. The study also offers fiscal policy recommendations for the
EU aimed at improving and stabilizing tax revenue collection in
the future.
Keywords
tax revenue; COVID-19 pandemic; fiscal policy; time trend model; forecasting
Hrčak ID:
302281
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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