Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2021.1985574
The heterogeneity spillover impact of U.S. permanent and temporary monetary shocks on China’s economy
Suhua Tian
Dihai Wang
Li Wang
Abstract
This study adopts the New Keynesian theoretical model to analyse the heterogeneity spillover effect of U.S. permanent and temporary monetary policy shock on China’s economy through an
exchange rate channel. It also employs the Bayesian technique to
estimate SVAR model and obtain two main results. First, the permanent increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. causes
Chinese yuan appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation, which has
a negative spillover impact on China’s economy and leads to the
decline in China’s real output. Second, the temporary increase in
the nominal interest rate in the U. S. leads to Chinese yuan depreciation, which has a positive spillover impact on China’ s macroeconomy and leads to the rise of China’s real output.
Keywords
Exchange rates; permanent monetary shocks; spillover impact; China’s economy
Hrčak ID:
302495
URI
Publication date:
31.3.2023.
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