Original scientific paper

https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.48.1.2

Forecasting medical inflation in the European Union using the ARIMA model

Enja Erker orcid.org/0000-0003-3053-5463 ; Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia

Abstract

As healthcare costs continue to pose significant challenges for governments and policymakers, accurate forecasting of medical inflation has become crucial in the European Union. This study aims to provide insights into the trajectory of medical inflation within the EU using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and to check whether this model is an effective tool for predictions of medical inflation. The findings of the study have significant implications across various sectors. With accurate forecasts of medical inflation, policymakers can proactively address challenges, insurers can determine appropriate premiums and develop innovative models, and healthcare entities can allocate resources strategically to ensure financial stability and quality care.

Keywords

medical inflation,HICP,ARIMA model,time series forecasting

Hrčak ID:

314734

URI

https://hrcak.srce.hr/314734

Publication date:

1.3.2024.

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