Original scientific paper
https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2023.2288127
Public land sales and the political cycle in China
Hao Liu
Xiao-Hang Guo
Li-Chen Chou
Helen Cai
Xi-Xi Ye
Abstract
This study analyzed the influence of the political cycle on public
land transfer. In this paper, the Party Congress is taken as a political
cycle, and we construct a model to discuss the relationship
between public land sales and the political cycle. The empirical
analysis is based on the land transfer panel data of prefecturelevel
cities from 2002 to 2018. The main results show that the
land transfer area and land transfer income show a downward
trend in the early stage of the Party Congress, while the land
transfer area and land transfer income show an upward trend
after the Party Congress. We believe that the political cycle has a
significant impact on the supply of public land. The reason is that
the political uncertainty in the early stage of the Party Congress is
very high, and the impact of the land transfer on tax revenue and
economic growth lags behind. Officials reduce the valuation of
future income and thus reduce land transfer. As political uncertainty
abated after the party congress, local officials joined the
promotion race, offering land to attract investment and boost
economic growth.
Keywords
China; political cycle; public land; uncertainty
Hrčak ID:
315165
URI
Publication date:
14.12.2023.
Visits: 306 *